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Once again I think the public’s perception of a team is helping us in this game.  The 49ers just were dominated against the Giants while the Seahawks pulled the unthinkable and defeated the Patriots after they were down 13 points.  Now the Seahawks are full of themselves quite a bit as many of the younger players are still boasting about the big win.  The short week playing a physical teami like the 49ers is not going to help matters for Seattle who primarily is a team that plays well at home not on the road and it will show tonight.  Interesting trend I saw out there in regards to teams over coming double digit deficit after 3 Q to win the game.  The following week they are 4-12 ATS dating back 5 years.  The Seahawks trailed Brady and the Patriots by 13 to start the 4th quarter before they made a nice come back and now they will be in for a major hang over against the 49ers who are benefiting from the short week at home as they’ll be able to get over their poor performance quickly.
 
That’s the emotional edge now onto to statistics.  Both teams run the ball and are among the best at stopping it.  There are a few misconceptions about both teams, but more than anything Seattle’s defense is starting to show some holes.  They are flat out dominant against the run ranked 2nd and they are even stopping it on the road, but their pass defense that benefits from a strong pass rush has been put at bay (no pun intended) lately.  They are actually ranked 13th in sack % now and it’s not nearly as strong on the road where they don’t have the advantage of their home crowd.  San Fran also is the best rushing attack this run defense has faced.  The 49ers are #1 5.9 ypc this year and at home they are averaging 6.6 ypc when they choose to run the ball.  Look for Harbaugh to get back to this against the Seahawks as they are starting to pass the ball way too much.
 
Other keys, I love Russell Wilson I think I mentioned his poise last week before the Patriots game, but I don’t trust him on the road just yet.  His QB rating on the road is 60.3, while Alex Smith’s is 98.8 at home.  If both defenses can shut down opposing rushing attacks Smith has a huge advantage.  Wilson struggles against the blitz and that’s something we will see from the 49ers today and Seattle’s 21st ranked TO margin ranking will play a huge factor.  The reason I like the under in a teaser is both 3rd down defenses are really good.  49ers allowing 32% conversions at home and Seattle is allowing 29% in their road games.  Offensively both teams are ranked low, 49ers 21st, Seattle 25th.  49ers are a lot better at home.  Possibly the biggest advantage comes in the red zone.  SF is 5th in TD% while SEA is 30th.  Defensively both teams are among the best which will keep this game low scoring for the most part, but I expect the 49ers to be trading TD’s for field goals.  Seattle will have to throw it deep to score  TD’s in this game.
 

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